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China's steel market demand will recover in the second quarter

In terms of production, from January to February, China's crude steel and steel production were 155 million tons and 167 million tons respectively, an increase of 3.1% and a decrease of 3.4% over the same period last year. Novel coronavirus pneumonia caused by the outbreak of traffic constraints, China steel mills inventories surged during Feb. to Mar.. Under the pressure of sparse warehouse, some steel mills increased maintenance and reduced production in February, but the overall production intensity is not large. With the gradual settlement of transportation problems, the operating rate of blast furnace and production line began to rise from March to April.

Looking forward to the second quarter, it is difficult for Chinese steel mills to reduce production and easy to resume production. Market supply and de stocking pressure will run through the whole second quarter. Affected by the epidemic situation in foreign steel mills, the scope of production reduction will be expanded. In the raw fuel market, the relative tight supply of iron ore is expected to ease after May. The coke industry is plagued by overcapacity, and the speed of capacity recovery after the Spring Festival is faster than that of iron and steel enterprises, so it is difficult to effectively alleviate the supply pressure.

On the whole, it is expected that the demand of China's steel market will recover in the second quarter in an all-round way. With the recovery of demand, the steel price is expected to pick up, and the construction steel is stronger than the steel plate. The import price of iron ore continues to fluctuate substantially, and the risk of low inventory is worthy of attention. The market price of coking coal and coke is expected to pick up in a restorative way, but the weak operation will be maintained as a whole.