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Cyclical factors may drive the price of A572 grade 50 structural steel higher
After the third quarter of 2020, the leading factors for the price increase of A572 grade 50 structural steel are jointly driven by the macro-level fiscal policy, the demand for real estate rush work, and the production cost of A572 grade 50 structural steel. In terms of macro policies in 2021, it is difficult for the broad fiscal policy to maintain a loose state for a long time. After the epidemic is controlled, fiscal and monetary policies will return to normal. The loose monetary environment that supports the rise of commodity prices in 2020 may gradually withdraw in the second half of this year.
In addition, from a cyclical perspective, in 2020, China has launched the seventh round of inventory cycle since 2000. In the first half of 2021, it is still in the restocking stage. In addition, the US inventory cycle has also entered a restocking state, and the two major economies have entered together. The inventory replenishment cycle may drive global commodities into a bull market. Observing from the characteristics of domestic A572 grade 50 structural steel fundamentals, the price of A572 grade 50 structural steel may increase in 2021. From the perspective of trend monitoring, there is still a large probability that the upward trend since the second quarter of 2020 will continue in the first half of the year. The upward trend may gradually decrease in the second half of the year due to the shift in monetary policy and the impact of new production capacity.