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The apparent consumption of steel in EU is expected to rebound in 2021

As in previous quarters, due to the safeguard measures taken by the EU, the total import volume of EU imports from third countries, including semi-finished steel products, decreased significantly in the first quarter of 2020, 20% year-on-year, slightly lower than the 24% decline in the fourth quarter of last year. In the whole year of 2019, the total amount of steel imported from third countries decreased by more than 11% year-on-year, compared with a year-on-year increase of 12% in 2018. In the whole year of 2019, the fluctuation of EU steel monthly import increased. In August, the EU steel import volume jumped to the historical highest level of 4.4 million tons, and then dropped to the historical lowest level in the following months. By April 2020, the EU steel import volume tends to be stable and the volatility is reduced.

In the first quarter of 2020, deliveries by local EU steel producers fell by 8% year-on-year, the same as in the fourth quarter of last year. For the whole year, the delivery volume of local EU steel producers in 2019 decreased by 4.2% year-on-year, compared with a year-on-year increase of 1.2% in 2018. The sharp fluctuation of monthly import volume, the decline of steel demand and the decrease of inventory make the steel price under pressure, which has an impact on steel sales.

Apparent steel consumption in the EU is expected to decline by 16.6% in 2020 and rebound by 14% in 2021.